Wait a minute… We did!
The last week sees bitter vindication for us pessimists who saw 8 years ago that Gordon Brown’s great ‘end to boom and bust’ trick was just that – a trick. Although a little optimism never hurt anybody, the belief that ‘things are different nowadays’ should never be used as a basis for managing markets (cf. 2001’s dot-com ‘bubble’ and the subsequent destruction of the nascent online market – putting back technological advancement for a good 5 years). What’s more, the Darling/Brown favourite phrase ‘a result of problems felt worldwide’ needs to be retired: the evidence above clearly shows that Britain is the worst placed of the major world economies to deal with this slowdown, and the only one which is headed for an ongoing recession as a result.
With hindsight, I hope many of those who believed in Brown’s ‘steering’ of our economy will realise that the signs have been there for all to see since way back when. This recession really began 5 years ago, and the government have been steadily increasing borrowing (and off-the-books PFI debt) ever since, to put back the day when comeuppance came knocking.
Doubling on the bets to prop up a falling market? Perhaps Brown should seek advice from a man who’s been there…
We shouldn’t play party politics, of course, and we’d all like to see the economy swiftly returned to its former glory. From a Conservative standpoint, though, it is now best if the next general election is as late as possible. Somebody has to take the fall for this mess, and if Labour are still in government through 2009, the blame will lie exactly where it is deserved.
Though these figures are predictions, they either indicate the lack of confidence in the gvt or the UK economy (not necessarily mutually exclusive).
The OECD have substantially reduced their expectations with the EU as a whole since their last review, mainly due to the performance of the PIGS (Portugal, Italy, Greece, Spain). There is rising concern about the overvalued euro, leading to higher inflation and loss of jobs.
My personal opinion, for what it’s worth, is that I’d tend towards a more general stagnation than wholesale recession. Not that this will assuage those who are losing their homes and jobs here.
Tizzy
September 4, 2008 at 5:32 pm