Sharpe's Opinion
Friday, 13th Feb, 2009
Tom Harris, asking his Tory readers to contemplate what would happen if Gordon Brown won the next General Election:
If it was a narrow Labour majority – say, one or two seats – would the party allow ‘David’ to continue? What if it was a more healthy majority, set to sustain GB’s new government through an entire parliamentary term?
It’s an accepted fact that there are many on the right wing of the Conservative Party who are biting their tongues while ‘David’ holds out a hope of a return to power for their party. They don’t like his perceived liberal namby-pambyism (though they shouldn’t worry – it is no more than perception). Would they keep their counsel for another four or five years?
I wondered about this for a little while. Then I realised that I knew what would happen: the Conservative Party would eat itself alive and probably never recover. David Cameron would be dropped like he was hot, the Party would lurch to the right, and the Lib Dems would probably become the second largest party, and possibly even the Government at the following general election. If the Tories won, Labour would probably remain the opposition until the Tories became unelectable.
The next general election is quite likely going to be ‘win or bust’ for both parties. But the Tories, counter-intuitively, have more to lose.
UPDATE: I meant to mention (but forgot) Blue Eyes giving up on the Tories earlier today. Worth a look.
Comments
Are you sure they’re acting like they deserve a turn at the wheel, as opposed to acting like Labour don’t deserve to be in power at all, let alone after another election?
Just a thought.
11 June 2010 Gordon Brown declared Prime Minister for the next 5 years.
12 June 2010 Australian, New Zealand, and US Embassies call for police help in controlling the crowds forming at their “Applications for Entry Visa” desks.
Stu – no, because if they were doing that they would be hammering away at everything the government does. What they are actually doing is refusing to get into the debate, refusing to argue their corner, effectively letting Labour get away with virtually anything.
Has this become a flash mob?
The premise that Gordon remains PM is mush, as is Labour retaining a majority at the next GE. Your brain is being realigned, don’t you realise? Tom should have his balls crushed.
patently, point well made!
Blue Eyes, point taken – but I still think their attitude is more informed by their opinion of Brown as a complete train wreck than by an unwarranted notion of manifest destiny.
Tiz, I think it’s an interesting thought experiment regardless. The fact is, Cameron’s grip on the Tories is only maintained by the fact that they think he might win. If Labour won it could easily spell the death of the Conservative Party as a political force. An interesting comment on the original post said:
“[A Tory loss] would reveal that the the politically-active classes on the centre-right are fundamentally unelectable in the 21st century. Why do I say that? Because the Labour party and Gordon Brown are unpopular. I say that as a Labour party member who will be out on the street campaigning for Laura Moffatt at the next election. If the Tories can’t win in this climate, after four years of building under a centrist figure like Cameron, I think it shows that they can’t win. They’d be a fringe party if they ran back to the right, but – as you point out – they’re not going tolerate moderate leadership and defeat simultaneously.”
I think I agree with that. It would be equivalent to John Major winning a surprise victory in ’97. Labour would have been dead, forever.
The Tories seem to be acting as if they deserve a “turn” at the controls. They will lose if they keep that up. It would not surprise me if Labour win the next election on the basis of “better the devil you know” in the face of a lack of real alternative.
Blue Eyes
February 13, 2009 at 4:08 pm