I think it’s fair to say that some people are not expecting Gordon Brown to last out the weekend as Prime Minister. Others are clearly not expecting him to last out the month of June.
What isn’t clear, however, is exactly who they think would replace him – and more crucially, why.
Alan Johnson has been talked about as a candidate, as has Ed Miliband, and indeed Harriet Harman. When espousing their virtues, though, rarely mentioned are the ideas or policies they might bring in that would be better than what is already being offered by Gordon Brown. Nobody seems to ask how Johnson would have approached the recession; how Miliband would have tackled expenses-gate; how Harman might deal with the collapsing car industry.
This is largely the point that Hopi Sen made when defending Gordon Brown last month. The Labour rebels are utterly without a cause. This isn’t the Rebel Alliance, it’s the Judean People’s Front. They think, in short, that presentation is the problem, not policy. They think Brown is unpopular because he doesn’t communicate well enough, not because the things he communicates are unpopular.
On the whole, Gordon Brown’s policies have actually been fairly popular with the Labour Party. They welcomed the VAT cut, they applauded the new 50p tax band for high earners, they were delighted with the nationalisation of the banks and are cheering on the idea of part nationalisation of the car industry1. They now want the face at the top to change, but the underlying policies to stay much the same.
It’s remarkably easy to revel in schadenfreude over that point. Remember, after all, that Tony Blair was so undermined by his party because they claimed to be fed up with spin and media presentation overtaking political decisions. They fiercely attack David Cameron, largely for being a normal-seeming human being rather than the dysfunctional-in-public but supposedly intellectually heavyweight2 Gordon Brown.
Now, I can’t speak for the electorate at large, and I have never conducted polling to find out whether specific policies would be popular amongst them – but I can make an educated guess that Labour’s return to the Socialism of the 70’s is not really going to successfully win over the hearts and minds of the people.
I can’t imagine, either, that Same Labour Party, Same Labour Policies, New Labour Leader is a campaign slogan that’s going to go down very well at the next General Election.
So New Labour have their hands tied. They can’t really get away with yet another drastic, fundamental change in policy within this term of Parliament, but changing leaders without changing their policy platform stinks of the same style over substance line that they trot out whenever David Cameron appears on the TV.
Raymond Chandler said, “the moment a man begins to talk about technique that’s proof that he is fresh out of ideas.” I think the would-be rebels would do well to consider that, before they base entire leadership campaigns on technique, and forget entirely about getting the ideas right.