When BF Skinner, the noted psychologist, put pigeons in cages and released food to them at set time intervals, he was surprised to find many of the pigeons exhibiting ‘superstitious’ behaviour, such as ducking their heads or spinning round in their cages, seemingly in the hope of influencing the food schedule. Their actions had no genuine effect, but they would become convinced that performing some action would make the food come faster, and this opinion was reinforced whenever the occasional piece of food did eventually arrive.

Obviously, the above has nothing to do with opinion polls, but it’s pretty interesting nonetheless, isn’t it?

You may have noticed a joking reference to an opinion poll in my last link yesterday. It was, in fact, a poll carried out by Ipsos Mori which shows the Lib Dems overtaking Labour. Here’s what the numbers looked like:

Tories: 36% (down 7%); Labour 24% (down 2%); Lib Dems 25% (up 8%)

Naturally the Lib Dems are Over. The. Moon. Out goes critical thinking and in comes the talk of how unfair it is that were these results repeated in an election the Lib Dems would still be left with 127 fewer seats than Labour, how we need Proportional Representation to address the balance1 and how based on this poll it would be madness (or illegal) for Nick Clegg not to appear in a television election debate.

Now, I know it’s just a lot of silliness, and I like getting all excited as much as anybody, but my Twitter timeline exploded with glee as this news broke, and I just feel I must take on the role of a dampening voice in the madness and point out three things:

First of all, this is an Ipsos Mori poll. Ipsos Mori. Is it just me, or did Ipsos Mori call the London Mayoral Elections for Ken Livingstone? Nope, it’s not just me.

Second, that’s a seven per cent swing from Tories to Lib Dems. Come on. Tories down 7%, Lib Dems up 8%? Across one poll? Look, I want the Lib Dems to overtake Labour as much as the next capitalist, but things don’t change that much, that quickly, even in conference season.

Third, opinion polls have always been about as useful as the 14-day weather forecast. They are the political embodiment of Heisenberg’s principle that it is impossible to observe without altering. Polls exist to provide a mid-term narrative to journalists; they set the news agenda, they don’t follow it. Political nerds and researchers and activists then watch those polls changing, and start engaging in all sorts of activities, convinced that their actions have an effect.

As I say, absolutely nothing to do with those superstitious pigeons. But interesting nonetheless, right?

  1. Because, you know, we actually vote for national parties in this country, not for individual representatives of a local constituency. [↩]