Sharpe's Opinion
Monday, 5th Oct, 2009
There’s not a lot David Cameron can do about Lisbon
Heresy Corner has the best take on Europe and David Cameron that I have read so far (and proves that if you wait around long enough somebody will say what you’re thinking, only they’ll do it better than you would have).
It is a sign of the unreal nature of political debate in the country that the result of the Irish referendum should be seen mainly as a headache for David Cameron. And, of course, it is a headache for David Cameron, if only because until this weekend it was possible to Tories to close their eyes and imagine that if they wished hard enough the whole Lisbon Treaty might just go away. Now they are faced with the stark reality that, barring a miracle, the new system will be up and running before Britain finally has its general election; and that will be that. A referendum in such circumstances would be an absurdity. Cameron and William Hague know this, and most Conservative members, if they’re being honest with themselves know it too.
Read the rest, he’s exactly right throughout. David Cameron’s biggest problem, though, is not the fairly dull and predictable taunts from his competition, but the fact that if he comes out and says there isn’t much he can do about Lisbon now, a significant proportion of the Tory membership will defect to UKIP.
Comments
“a significant proportion of the Tory membership will defect to UKIP.”
Errr, I think you’ll find this has already happened, judging by the vote percentages at the last Euro election!
I can’t stand the shrieking on either side of this debate. In simple terms once the treaty is ratified there is no point in a referendum because the only way the treaty can be unratified is for the UK to withdraw completely from the EU.
I happen to think that would be desirable and would campaign vigorously for such an outcome, but any referendum on that issue would have to be on that issue and no other.
There simply is not an option marked “go back to the previous treaty” once Lisbon is in force.
I don’t really think a full withdrawl would be best, but I know exactly where you’re coming from, BE. A referendum after ratification would Be a pointless waste of time and money, and that time would be far better spent working on getting the most out of the next treaty – which, if memory serves, won’t require a ratification process.
Still, there are a few post ratifaction concessions Cameron could win, if the Tories hold together long enough for him to win power. That’s a big if, though.
I started to write a comment, but it ended up as a blog post.
As I see it, if the treaty comes into force before we can vote on it then of the previous range of options, i.e.
– accept the Treaty
– refuse to ratify and require a renegotiation
– leave the EU
we have only lost one. There are still two left. He’ll still need a referendum, though, to allow him to shut up the section of the public that disagrees with his decision.
Level-headed stuff, Mr S. The proverbial rock and hard place, then.
Personally, I can’t see the “absurdity” in holding a referendum on a treaty that was ratified by this Labour government illegitimately (ie: without a referendum), but I do take that as being one way of looking at it – and understand that that is Cameron’s way of looking at it.
As a consequence of this debacle – which, I appreciate, was not of Cameron’s making – no one should defect to UKIP which, as far as I am concerned, is not a serious political movement. It’s a fairly popular single issue pressure group that’s managed to do what most fairly popular single issue pressure groups manage to do and win a few European seats (like the Greens have – and the Bee ‘n Pee).
But no one should punish the Tories, by voting for the Kippers, for this travesty of European policy and betrayal of the British body politic and population by this Labour government. The guilt for that betrayal lies squarely at their door. And that should never be forgotten! Especially by anyone who wants to see them kicked out of power.
A vote for UKIP might as well be a vote for Labour.
denverthen
October 5, 2009 at 11:18 pm